You are counting your wealth in a unit the people who issue it can conjure at will. That is not a measurement. It is a magic trick, and you are the audience.
Soon, Sir. I've been reading Your Work since You called Yourselves Hedgies Uncut. Excellent Analysis, Great Picks and Wisdom brought of many Years as a Hedge-fund Manager shows in the Writing. Soon, Sir, I WILL Be a Paid Subscriber...
This is the part that floors me: every AI data center, every chip fab, every 'asset-light' darling (or so they were, until the capex bills forced many of them to quietly drop the label) is downstream of the energy tier you describe. We've somehow priced the foundation below the building sitting on top of it. The megawatts and the copper trade at six times earnings, while the abstraction layer that can't run a single GPU without them trades at a hundred. That isn't optimism about technology. It's a category error, and the rubber ruler is one of the biggest reasons nobody sees it. Which is good news for anyone paying attention, because there's no shortage of dreamers out there to keep the foundation cheap.
The one thing I can't settle, though: how long does the dream actually last? It's far from clear now that governments are lining up to subsidize AI development directly, treating it as some kind of arms race in the name of 'national security.' Doesn't state money risk keeping the ruler stretched, and the foundation cheap, well past the point fundamentals alone would justify? Curious how you're thinking about this.
Look at all other Government Interventions that were made for "National Security" Purposes...The Intervention became a Boat Anchor and the Results speak for Themselves...Fiasco!
Some good points on flipping perspectives, however, saying “own the unprintable” and then suggesting to buy shares in a fund of companies which can all print shares seems to miss the point! I own stock priced in dollars too, but not because they will “beat inflation”. I own them because they will inflate with the currency (until the bubble pops) and then I can use those inflated dollars to pay off my fixed rate dollar debt(mortgage).
Soon, Sir. I've been reading Your Work since You called Yourselves Hedgies Uncut. Excellent Analysis, Great Picks and Wisdom brought of many Years as a Hedge-fund Manager shows in the Writing. Soon, Sir, I WILL Be a Paid Subscriber...
Awesome post!
This is the part that floors me: every AI data center, every chip fab, every 'asset-light' darling (or so they were, until the capex bills forced many of them to quietly drop the label) is downstream of the energy tier you describe. We've somehow priced the foundation below the building sitting on top of it. The megawatts and the copper trade at six times earnings, while the abstraction layer that can't run a single GPU without them trades at a hundred. That isn't optimism about technology. It's a category error, and the rubber ruler is one of the biggest reasons nobody sees it. Which is good news for anyone paying attention, because there's no shortage of dreamers out there to keep the foundation cheap.
The one thing I can't settle, though: how long does the dream actually last? It's far from clear now that governments are lining up to subsidize AI development directly, treating it as some kind of arms race in the name of 'national security.' Doesn't state money risk keeping the ruler stretched, and the foundation cheap, well past the point fundamentals alone would justify? Curious how you're thinking about this.
Look at all other Government Interventions that were made for "National Security" Purposes...The Intervention became a Boat Anchor and the Results speak for Themselves...Fiasco!
Some good points on flipping perspectives, however, saying “own the unprintable” and then suggesting to buy shares in a fund of companies which can all print shares seems to miss the point! I own stock priced in dollars too, but not because they will “beat inflation”. I own them because they will inflate with the currency (until the bubble pops) and then I can use those inflated dollars to pay off my fixed rate dollar debt(mortgage).