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Greetings, friends!
Fellow subscriber and friend Al sent through this sunset from his farm in New Zealand:
To start, wise words from Ray Dalio:
Principle: “A Smart Rabbit Has Three Holes.”
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that might have been lost to people who haven’t experienced that need in their lifetimes. The fact is that throughout history...over the last 200 years...about 85% of countries have had such bad circumstances that large numbers of people have had to flee them. More specifically, today there are about 195 countries, and over the last 200 years, approximately 160–175 of those had at least one period in which substantial numbers of people fled because of war, persecution, famine, or state collapse. History has shown that the Big Cycle is at times driven by the five big forces toward periods of disorder, as seems to be happening now. In any case, it would be naive to not consider and prepare for this possibility.
When I think about investing, I think about what your money is for. I think that we would agree that, first and foremost, it is to keep you and your loved ones safe. I have found that one’s perspective about wars and investing in light of them depends on one’s proximity to them. If you are someone who is experiencing some sort of war (civil or international), your perspective is very different than if you’re outside of the war, thinking about the return on your investments. My point is that history has shown that the best investment you can have in times of war is alternative safe places to go that are well stocked, and the best asset you can have is your human capital.
The above is appropriate given the events unfolding right now. At a portfolio level this means diversification.
In This Week’s Issue
The Nasdaq: Take a Closer Look
Asymmetry in Motion
Lessons from History
Predictive Programming
Cascade
Gasoil (aka Diesel)
AI
Convergence
Iran War
Liquidity In Credit Doesn’t Matter… Until It Does
Not the Onion
Halo
Fertilizer: It’s More Than Ammonia
Gypsum
