This Is How Silver Goes Up Five Times

The asymmetry must release.

Greetings, friends!

I was watching some clips from Davos recently. And I have to tell you, the audacity on display was something to behold.

These are the same people...the very same people...who, five years ago, were wagging their fingers at us for showering too often. Chastising the world. Scolding us about renewables and carbon footprints and the moral imperative of dismantling fossil fuels. Remember all that? They were very passionate about it. Very certain.

And now? Now they’re standing at their podiums telling us we obviously need coal. We obviously need natural gas. We obviously need to keep the lights on.

No apology. No acknowledgment. Not even a shrug. They just pivoted...and presented the new position with the same divine confidence they brought to the old one. Problem, action, solution. They created the crisis, administered the scolding, and now they’re riding back in as the only people equipped to fix it.

It’s a good old Hegelian dialectic. And they run it every single time.

What genuinely staggers me isn’t that they do it. Of course they do it. Parasites gonna parasite. What staggers me is that the vast majority of people just...accept it. No outrage. No mockery. Certainly no accountability. The same face on the television says a completely different thing than it said five years ago, and the audience nods along.

This is the Milgram experiment at mass scale.

You’ll remember the original experiment. Ordinary people, when instructed by a figure in a lab coat, were willing to administer what they believed were severe electric shocks to strangers. Not because they were cruel. Because someone with credentials told them it was the right thing to do.

We saw the modern version during Convid. Stand three feet behind the person in front of you. Masks on if you’re standing. Masks off if you’re sitting. You could eat at the restaurant but couldn’t walk through it without a mask. And people...intelligent people...followed these obvious absurdities. Because a man on television with letters after his name said it was the right thing to do.

For those of us who sat back and said this is transparent nonsense...it was deeply frustrating. Personally, I mean. I wanted to pull my hair out.

But here’s the thing. There are consequences to following nonsense. There always are. And the longer a society follows nonsense...the longer it accepts the unacceptable, defers to the indefensible, and applauds the incoherent...the greater the asymmetry that builds.

That asymmetry eventually gets released.

This is how gold runs for two years and becomes the best-performing major asset class on the planet while the financial media barely notices. This is how silver goes up five times. This is how energy stocks quietly compound while the consensus is busy worshipping at the altar of the Bag 7.

The same dynamic is playing out across geopolitics and financial markets simultaneously...and the two are not separate phenomena.

When the social contract between a government and its citizens erodes...when the governing class stops even pretending to serve the people it claims to represent...you don’t need a crystal ball to know what comes next. History is perfectly clear on this. Financial constraints pile up. Political decay accelerates. The currency gets debased. Conflict follows. Domestically and internationally.

None of this is conspiracy theorizing. It’s pattern recognition. Cui bono...who benefits?...is the only question worth asking when a new crisis appears. Follow the capital flows. Follow the policy. Follow who ends up with more power and more money on the other side. These things do not happen by accident.

I’ve been saying for years that the US would experience domestic civil conflict. You’re watching it. I’ve been saying international conflict would escalate. You’re watching that too. Not because I’m clairvoyant. Because this is what happens when the financial constraints reach the point they’ve reached, and when the trust between citizen and state collapses the way it has collapsed.

Now. To markets. Because this is our shtick.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are, at this point, held up by roughly ten companies...all sporting valuations that would make your eyes water. OpenAI hemorrhages cash and has never turned a profit...the company is projecting roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 alone before pivoting to profitability sometime around 2030. The reasoning behind flows into these names isn’t even human at this point. It’s passive capital, algo-driven, chasing the same narrow set of assets in a feedback loop that feels unassailable right up until the moment it isn’t.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth about passive capital flows: they have limits. There are breakers.

I can’t tell you exactly what triggers the unwind. Nobody can. But I can tell you...with considerable confidence...that on a historical basis, this breaks. Gravity isn’t a risk. It’s a schedule.

In the meantime, the conditions that produce the break are the same conditions that have always driven capital into hard assets: unpayable debts, political decay, and an accelerating loss of faith in the institutions that are supposed to manage all of it.

Let’s talk about the debt, because this is the crux of everything.

Western governments are sitting on obligations that simply cannot be repaid...global public debt hit $100 trillion and kept climbing. This isn’t a controversial observation. The numbers are what they are. And when you look back through history, these situations resolve in one of exactly two ways. Not three. Not four. Two.

Outright default. Or default via currency debasement...inflation.

That’s it. There are no other exits. Zero. None. Nada.

And when either of those things happens...when hard assets reprice in the debased currency...it happens every single time. Precious metals. Farmland. Energy assets. Copper. Real things. Things you can hold, things that produce something, things that exist independently of a government’s ability to print its way out of a problem.

I remember traveling through Zimbabwe during their currency collapse. Fridges were being used as currency. Literal household appliances. Better to own a fridge than to hold the local notes. That’s an extreme, obviously. But it’s the same principle operating at a different point on the spectrum.

Which is why...despite the violent corrections we’ve already seen and will see again in precious metals...you do not want to exit this trade. Not until the debt problem is resolved. And it isn’t close to being resolved.

Gold isn’t moving because of inflation, by the way. Let’s be clear about that. It’s moving because of a loss of faith. Faith in institutions. Faith in central banks. Faith in the governing class’s ability...or even desire...to manage the mess they’ve made. That distinction matters enormously, because it tells you where we are in the cycle. And where we are is: early.

Now, a word on how to actually handle all of this. Because knowing what’s coming and positioning correctly for it are two completely different things.

The single biggest mistake I see is concentration. Someone becomes convinced...rightly, in many cases...that gold or energy or emerging markets are going to run. And then they put 30% of their wealth into a single name and wait. This is how you get the call right and still lose your shirt.

Think back to the last uranium cycle. You could have spotted it early, nailed the thesis, bought Cameco...and then watched Cigar Lake flood. Exogenous event. Nobody saw it coming. The odds were not in favor of that outcome. But it still happened. If you had sized appropriately...say 1% into Cameco as part of a broader 5% weighting in uranium...you’d have been fine. You still had the call right. You survived the shock. You got paid on the thesis.

Everything in markets is pure probability. You run probability on the thesis. You run probability on the position. You choose sizing that means you can be right on the big picture and wrong on a specific name and still come out ahead.

This is why we structure portfolios the way we do...roughly ten themes, sized around ten percent each, diversified across names within each theme. It’s boring as a wheelbarrow. Nobody writes clickbait about portfolio construction. But it’s the only way to survive this environment with both your capital and your sanity intact.

The goal is never to predict with certainty. The goal is to have probability in your favor across multiple positions, so that the ones that work cover the ones that don’t...and then some.

Here’s where we are, plainly stated.

Hard assets are in a long-term repricing event driven by debt, debasement, and loss of faith. The consensus is still, by and large, parked in overvalued US tech stocks, watching passive flows do the work of fundamental analysis. The Milgram experiment continues.

But experiments end.

The longer the nonsense persists, the greater the asymmetry. And the greater the asymmetry, the more violent the release.

We’re positioned accordingly. And we’re getting paid to wait.

Do your own research before acting on anything discussed here.