The Great Unwinding

Gold is roaring, tech is teetering, and bonds just broke their sacred vow. Is this the start of a decade-long capital exodus...and are you on the right side of it?

The crowd is always right, until it isn’t.

That’s the uncomfortable truth behind every bull market, every easy-money decade, and every meme-stock surge fueled by Reddit degenerates and zero-DTE options.

But every now and then, the crowd senses danger, sniffs the rot, and begins to rotate.

Not with sirens or speeches… just quiet selling here, a reallocation there. The kind of silent shift you only notice once it’s too late to get out clean.

Chris MacIntosh isn’t just noticing. He’s grabbing the bullhorn, climbing on a crate, and yelling, “Probabilities are high. This could be the big one.”

A decade-long capital rotation. Out of growth. Out of bonds. Out of fantasy. And straight into the arms of reality: commodities, energy, and gold.

This Isn’t a Rebalancing. It’s a Seismic Shift.

Every so often, markets stop rearranging deck chairs and start flipping the entire ship.

These are capital rotations…the financial equivalent of continental drift.

They’re rare, violent, and generational.

The 1930s. 1972. 2002. Each a hinge moment. And in every one, gold didn’t just whisper. It roared.

In the 1970s, gold did a 20x while inflation ran hot and stocks did little but grind.

After the dot-com implosion in 2002, gold and oil began a quiet march that turned into a parade. Gold up 600%. Crude oil doubled. The S&P? Barely limped along for years.

Fast-forward to today. Gold is breaking records. Central banks from China and India bought around 1,000 tonnes.

And U.S. equities…depending on how you slice the pie…are either in euphoria (the top 7 stocks) or barely breathing (everything else).

That’s not noise. That’s signal. The kind you ignore at your portfolio’s peril.

But if this is a signal, what exactly is it pointing to? And how far ahead is the smart money already looking?

Bonds Broke Their Contract

The 60/40 portfolio is a religion. Stocks for growth, bonds for safety. When one zigs, the other zags. That was the gospel.

And then 2022 showed up like a chainsaw in a canoe.

Stocks tanked. Bonds tanked harder. The S&P 500 dropped over 25% peak to trough.

The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index shed 13%…its worst performance since the index was born.

The Fed went from zero to 4.5% in a flash, and suddenly duration risk became the thing nobody wanted to hold.

MacIntosh calls this a “red flag.” That’s polite. This is a detonated model.

The old system assumed central banks could always smooth volatility.

What 2022 taught us is that the Fed’s control is more illusion than fact.

And 2025 isn’t much better.

Treasury yields hover around 4.5%, and volatility persists.

The 10-year note, once the most boring asset in the world, now swings like a small-cap biotech stock on trial day.

Developed Market Bonds, Emerging Market Problems

MacIntosh doesn’t mince words: developed market bonds are starting to behave like the sovereign debt of fiscally reckless regimes.

It’s not hyperbole. It’s arithmetic.

The U.S. sports a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 120%. The U.K. isn’t far behind. Japan?

Let’s just say they stopped printing zeroes on the debt clock a long time ago.

These aren’t your garden-variety deficits. These are structural, inflation-stoking, interest-compounding time bombs.

Once a central bank starts monetizing debt…not to stimulate, but just to keep the government solvent…you’ve crossed the line.

And in 2022, the U.K. nearly paid the price when a bond market revolt forced the Bank of England to intervene after unfunded tax cuts blew out gilt yields.

Japan’s 2023 struggle to maintain yield curve control didn’t go much better.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market has seen soft demand and falling foreign participation, especially from China.

The warning lights are flashing.

This isn’t emerging market behavior because Argentina’s in trouble. It’s emerging market behavior because we are.

Tech's Titanic Concentration

Let’s talk equities.

Specifically, the S&P 500, which increasingly looks like a Silicon Valley hedge fund with some industrials stapled on for decoration.

The “Magnificent 7” (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet) now account for over 30% of the index’s weight. That level of concentration?

We haven’t seen it since 2000, when Cisco and friends promised endless productivity and delivered a 15-year hangover.

In 2024, the equal-weighted S&P underperformed the cap-weighted index by nearly 10%. That’s a market hiding its sickness behind a handful of superstars.

When the Mag 7 correct, the drawdown will be biblical. Tech stocks don’t fall gently. They crater. And with many funds overweight the same names, the margin calls will echo through everything.

The Great Migration: Where the Capital Is Actually Going

If bonds are broken and tech is tired, where’s the money going?

Short-term Treasuries.

3-month bills yielding nearly 5% have become catnip for capital that wants safety and liquidity.

Gold. Central banks are buying. ETFs are seeing inflows. And for once, retail isn’t front-running the move…always a good sign.

Energy. Brent crude is up 15% in 2024. Energy ETFs like XLE are quietly outperforming. Uranium just kissed $100/pound. OPEC is cutting. Geopolitical risk is climbing.

MacIntosh sees this as the early innings of a new decade-long trend. The 2000s playbook is back: long real stuff, short fantasy.

This Isn’t Doom. It’s a Wake-Up Call.

MacIntosh isn’t pitching apocalypse. He’s issuing a challenge: adjust, or get steamrolled.

In past rotations, the market didn’t die…it changed.

Commodities ran. Value crushed growth. Real assets reasserted themselves.

From 2002–2007, the GSCI commodity index rose 80%. Value stocks outperformed by over 50%.

Today, ETFs like VTV (value) are beating QQQ (tech) year-to-date.

This is classic rotation behavior.

The stuff that got crushed first…energy, materials, industrials…is rising from the ashes.

The stuff that got drunk on cheap money…tech, long-duration bonds…is sobering up fast.

The Road Ahead: Not If, But When

Will this rotation happen overnight? No. But all the signposts are there.

• Gold outperforming equities? Check!

• Bond market dysfunction? Check!

• Equity concentration extreme? Check!

• Commodities perking up? Check!

Could AI or a Fed pivot delay the party? Sure. But delay ≠ derail.

Rotations are like tides. You can’t stop them. But you can choose where to fish.

Complacency Is a Position. Don’t Be Holding It.

If you’ve built your portfolio on the assumption that what worked from 2010–2020 will keep working... best of luck.

Chris MacIntosh sees the big picture. And while no one knows the exact day the music stops, he’s not waiting for the DJ to hit pause.

Because when capital rotates, it doesn’t ask for your permission.

It just moves. Quietly. Irrevocably. And by the time you notice, the best seats are already taken.

What are you rotating into?

⭕️ Haven’t read our latest premium report, Insider Issue 310 yet?