Russia’s Frozen Markets: Big Melt Coming?
When war subsides, will Russian markets reawaken or remain in financial exile? The smart money is watching closely—but who's brave enough to bet first?
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” — Charles Darwin
In the cutthroat game of global geopolitics, where economic warfare often outlasts the shooting kind, a pressing question emerges: If peace breaks out in Ukraine, does Russia get its economic hall pass back?
More importantly, should investors be looking at Russia again?
It’s a tantalizing proposition.
When Western governments unleashed financial hell on Russia in 2022, the goal was clear—economic isolation as punishment for military aggression.
Russian stocks were frozen, trade flows were shattered, and a new Cold War of capital controls took shape.
But what if that starts to unwind?
Keep an eye out for signals pointing to an unthawing…
Russia’s request to resume direct flights with the U.S. was reported by the Russian Foreign Ministry following diplomatic talks in Istanbul on February 27, 2025.
A direct statement from the ministry, as cited by multiple news outlets, confirms this proposal was made during discussions with U.S. representatives.
The Russian Foreign Ministry’s official press release from February 28, 2025, states:
"The Russian side proposed to consider the possibility of restoring direct air links between Russia and the United States."
This was covered by Reuters, AP News, and Meduza, among others, on February 28 and March 1, 2025.
The U.S. State Department has not yet confirmed agreement to this proposal, focusing instead on diplomatic operations in its own statements from the same talks.
The Sleeping Market
If sanctions were to eventually lift, the Russian stock market wouldn’t just wake up—it would come back swinging.
Years of illiquidity have created a coiled spring.
Early investors might flee for liquidity, but bargain hunters would flood in, eager to scoop up assets that have been artificially depressed.
The tricky part?
Pricing.
The last known values of many Russian stocks are relics of a different era.
How do you value an asset that’s been in financial deep freeze?
The moment markets reopen, expect chaos.
Russian trade, once a staggering $875 billion in 2021, cratered to $194 billion post-2022. The country’s economic arteries were severed overnight.
Most of Europe and the U.S. swore off Russian oil, gas, metals, and tech, cutting the country off from key export markets.
But as any seasoned investor knows, markets find a way.
China and Turkey stepped in, absorbing Russian commodities at a discount, reshaping global trade flows in the process.
Now, picture a world where sanctions disappear.
Suddenly, Russian oil, gas, and metals aren’t just trickling out to China and India—they’re flooding back into the West.
That’s like Russia getting its economic superpowers back.
Investors have already started sniffing around, buying Russian-linked assets in places like Hong Kong and Vienna, betting on a thaw in relations.
Ukraine: The Dark Horse in the Recovery Race
While Russia’s prospects hinge on diplomacy, Ukraine’s future is tied to something more tangible—farmland.
Pre-war, Ukraine was a global breadbasket, exporting wheat and sunflower oil across the world. The war torched supply chains, but peace could reignite this crucial industry.
One stock that’s already showing signs of life?
$MHPC, a Ukrainian agricultural player.
Investors who got in at $3.50 in 2023 are already up 66%, and that’s without a ceasefire.
If Ukraine stabilizes, farm stocks could skyrocket. Why? Because they’re trading at dirt-cheap valuations—P/E ratios of 3 or lower.
If the war ends, they won’t just recover; they will likely explode.
Lower energy prices from renewed Russian trade would cut Ukrainian farming costs, adding even more fuel to the rally.
That means stocks like $MHPC could be a stealth winner in the post-war shake-up.
Markets have a way of rewriting narratives, and history shows that capital often flows where opportunities emerge—regardless of past conflicts.
But how soon could this shift happen, and what would it take for investors to confidently return to Russian and Ukrainian markets?
The Contrarian Playbook
Investing in post-conflict regions is never easy. Geopolitical risk is real, and timing is everything.
But deep-value investors know one truth: the biggest opportunities arise when uncertainty is at its peak.
Here’s how a smart investor might spread the risk inside a Russia-Ukraine allocation to their portfolio:
Ukrainian Agriculture: Stocks like $MHPC + others could be an asymmetric bet on peace.
Russian Energy & Commodities: If tradable again, names like Lukoil and Gazprom could soar.
A diversified 1–2% allocation to each ticker in your Russia-Ukraine basket keeps downside limited while allowing for asymmetric upside.
If one leg falters, the damage is contained. If one takes off, it carries the basket.
What Happens Next?
If the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and Europe come to an understanding, here’s what else could unfold:
Lower Energy Prices: If Russian oil and gas flood back into global markets, expect prices to drop. That’s great for airlines, manufacturers, and anyone with an energy-intensive business. But U.S. oil giants like Exxon and Chevron? Not so much.
Global Trade Rebalancing: A reopened Russia would shake up supply chains.
Countries that filled the gap left by Russian exports—like U.S. farmers or European energy firms—could see demand fall.Stock Market Surge: Stability breeds investor confidence. European and Russian markets could jump, while U.S. stocks might catch a tailwind from reduced energy costs.
Watch the Risks: Russia won’t just sit on its newfound wealth. If sanctions lift, it could funnel resources into military or economic expansion, making investors nervous.
Sanctions and the Waiting Game
The biggest wildcard remains sanctions.
The U.S. and Europe built a financial fortress around Moscow, and dismantling it won’t happen overnight. But history teaches us that financial barriers crumble when money is on the line.
If energy crises deepen or global food shortages worsen, expect pragmatism to overtake ideology.
Until then, the smart move is to watch and wait.
The moment liquidity returns to Russian equities, the market will decide their fate.
Those positioned early will be the biggest winners. Seeing value before the world does—that’s the game.
Disclaimer: Not investing advice! This article is for educational purposes only. Seriously, we really do hope you become a better investor after reading our work. But always do your own due diligence and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment. Capitalist Exploits reserves all rights to the content of this publication and related materials.