Insider Newsletter: Issue #315

"We’re about to enter a time where authoritarian overt actions come to the table..."

Greetings, friends!

Here’s Doubtful Sound, on the South Island in New Zealand — courtesy of Brad.

And courtesy of Glenorchy Capital’s trader Les, who’s sitting on the edge of the Simpson Desert in Australia.

So much to talk about and so little time. I will make this statement because it is relevant to the situation we all find ourselves in today:

Lord Anton says that “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. But reflecting, it is key to understand that power does not transform, it amplifies.

He who leads, shows what he really is… with more impact. Power doesn’t change people, it just takes away the need to pretend.

The righteous protects, the ambitious abuses, the insecure becomes a tyrant.

It is not power that corrupts, it is the true face of each that emerges when there is no longer fear of consequences.

I believe that the reason we are seeing outright abuses (more of that in this issue) is that the abusers used to operate in the shadows (covert). But now, as the cloak is forcibly removed, these actors move out of the shadows, becoming overt.

The problem with being overt is that the strategies that are used under covert (Epstein blackmail operations) are very different from overt ones. Once the actions become overt, the cloak is removed and trust evaporates.

The ability to control the peasants when trust is no longer there also evaporates.

This is why we’re about to enter a time where authoritarian overt actions come to the table…where the pointy shoes drop the pretenses and show the peasants who they really are.

Bee-ing Different May Save the World

Lucas sent me this video:

The entire presentation is awesome, and Rory Sutherland is hilarious. However, I’m going to pull out a section. Go to 12:56 and listen to the story of bees.

It touches on a fascinating principle of decentralized intelligence and biological resilience.

When a honeybee discovers a rich food source (flowers or nectar), it returns to the hive and performs the waggle dance.

It’s a precise movement that encodes:

• Direction of the food (relative to the sun),

• Distance, and

• Quality of the source.

This dance helps guide other forager bees to the same source.

This is the story we were taught at school. What we weren’t taught however is that 15-20% of the bees basically say, “Meh, pha-kit! We’re not following the crowd.”

Instead, they forage randomly or explore on their own. While this might seem inefficient, it’s actually a brilliant evolutionary strategy.

The Biological Reason: Balancing Exploration vs. Exploitation

This is a classic trade-off in adaptive systems:

• Following the dance equals exploitation (rely on known info, maximize current resources)

• Ignoring it leads to exploration (search for new or better sources, even if risky)

By allowing 15-20% to “go rogue,” the colony avoids putting all its eggs in one basket.

This is necessary to prevent collapse. Consider what would happen if all bees go to the same patch and it then dries up or Monsanto turns up and sprays it with their pesticides.

The colony would be under an immediate risk of starvation.

It is, of course, the risk of centralisation…a single critical point of failure.

So instead the explorers find new sources before this happens…just as we manage our portfolio to derisk catastrophic outcomes (just like bees).

After all, flowers bloom and wilt constantly. Having scouts means the hive adapts quickly to changing environments.

This process also allows for fault tolerance (like when we have one stock turn out to be shitty). If a bee gives wrong info or gets confused (e.g. by magnetic fields or toxins), not everyone suffers from bad guidance. The hive lives on.

This creates an antifragile system.

Total consensus would mean fragility is extreme, while having all bees bugger off to do their own thing would be suboptimal for maximising food gathering.

Now. applied to our world. When 80% of the market believes x and has done so for an extreme length of time with decaying variables – (similar to a particular nectar spot now running out but nobody wanting to think it possible) it is at these times that it is likely that the 20% outperform.

B.S. Fatigue

Ha, whowouldathunk it?

President Trump’s Justice Department and FBI have concluded they have no evidence that convicted sex offender and disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed powerful figures, kept a “client list” or was murdered, according to a memo detailing the findings obtained by Axios.

Of course, this brings up the problematic question of Ghislaine, who was jailed for trafficking kids… to nobody.

If there’s no list, then you can be darn sure her lawyers will be looking to spring her because… well, you can’t be convicted of a victimless crime, can you?

It’s all a bit absurd. Anyone asking obvious questions is called crazy. Shut up, you peasants, with your conspiracy theories. Wear your mask. It’s for your protection. Trust the news, they’re there for you.

This reminds me of how the documents relating to the moon landing held by NASA went missing. The most important and groundbreaking event in the history of NASA, and whoops, lost it. Weird!

Some humorous quips on the topic…

They expect you to believe this shit. Meanwhile…

And it all kicked off around 2021. It’s all so puzzling. I wish someone could figure it out.

Why point this all out?

Easy. It is what happens at the end of empires!

The peasants lose faith in their masters.

I mean, who but the retarded believes the guvmint, media, big pharma, big banking, big AG or any of the pointy shoes at this point?

And you know where trust in the pointy shoes is expressed in financial markets? Yup, the sovereign bond markets.

Which brings us to…

Exponential Interest Costs