Fuel for Thought
Everyone’s hyped about nuclear’s comeback...but are SMRs the future of energy, or just startup sizzle wrapped in radioactive buzzwords? Who’s really making money here?
“I’m not a technician. I just follow the money.” - Chris MacIntosh
If an entire sector screams “future of energy” but hasn’t turned a profit, is it a revolution…or just another speculative gold rush?
That’s the kind of question Chris MacIntosh tosses out like a Molotov cocktail at a hype parade.
And lately, the nuclear energy sector has been handing him plenty of fuel.
The world is rediscovering nuclear.
Google, Microsoft, and Amazon aren’t just building data centers…they’re hunting for reliable, base-load power to keep them humming.
Political tides are turning too, with countries like Canada, Poland, and even Japan rethinking their once-chilly stance on nuclear energy.
Enter the buzzword du jour: Small Modular Reactors, or SMRs.
Investors are salivating like it’s 2021 crypto season all over again.
But before you cannonball into the nuclear pool, maybe dip a toe in first.
Is the water warm, or is it just steam rising off a pile of promises?
Let’s stroll through the reactor room…Geiger counter in one hand, Chris’s skepticism in the other.
The Sparkle of SMRs: Tech Fairy Dust or Fission Unicorn?
SMRs are pitched as the tiny homes of nuclear power…
…modular, scalable, and supposedly deployable faster than you can say “prefab.”
Unlike the massive, decade-long projects of traditional reactors, SMR companies promise smaller units with lower upfront costs and enhanced safety features.
Sounds like a dream, right?
Investors thought so too.
NuScale, X-energy, Oklo…their stock charts lit up like a control rod pulling out of a reactor core.
Valuations spiked on buzz, blueprints, and bold claims. Wall Street ate it up. Reddit traders piled in.
But as Chris quips, “They took off... and I missed it.”
No wistfulness there…just a raised eyebrow. Like he’s eyeing a guy hawking desert condos with a PowerPoint and a sunburn.
Chasing Steam Dreams
NuScale’s Idaho project was supposed to be the SMR golden child…a 462-megawatt plant for Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS).
Then costs soared to $9.3 billion (about $20,000 per kilowatt), subscriptions lagged, and in November 2023, it got canned.
For context, that’s pricier than many traditional reactors (Vogtle’s latest units hit around $14,000/kW) and dwarfs solar-plus-storage costs, which hover near $1,000-$2,000/kW according to Lazard’s 2023 estimates.
Most SMR outfits…NuScale included…are still pre-revenue, living off investor cash and press releases.
X-energy’s got deals with Amazon, Oklo’s eyeing data centers, but functioning plants?
Not yet.
The SMR market might grow…projections suggest a potential $150 billion market by 2040 (per IDTechEx). But growing from what?
A handful of pilots?
Optimism isn’t profit.
Chris doesn’t hate growth. He hates hype without substance.
Nuclear energy’s second act is full of promise…but so was Theranos. Investors must ask: is this sector innovating…or improvising?
Let’s break down where the money’s flowing…and whether the glow is real or radioactive hype.
The Old Dogs Still Hunt
While SMRs chase the spotlight, traditional nuclear reactors…those clunky giants we’ve spent decades bashing…are quietly cashing checks.
Constellation Energy struck a 20-year deal with Microsoft in 2024 to restart a 835-megawatt unit at Three Mile Island by 2028.
That’s right…the Three Mile Island! Site of the 1979 meltdown scare, now poised to power AI workloads.
Traditional reactors aren’t glamorous.
The average U.S. reactor is 42 years old (per the Energy Information Administration, 2023 data), creaking along past its original design life.
But they’re profitable, with capacity factors above 90% and steady revenue from utilities. Constellation’s stock jumped 80% in 2024 alone.
Think of them as the Warren Buffett of nuclear—dull, dependable, and delivering.
Is Anyone Serious About This?
Chris isn’t anti-SMR. He’s anti-BS.
To him, the proof is in the pudding…or rather, the capital. Not Twitter hype or glossy PR…real money from players who’ve done their homework.
Retail investors piling in? Noise.
Venture capital tossing coins like it’s a startup casino? Risky.
But when Amazon commits $500 million to X-energy in late 2024, or Google inks a 500-megawatt deal with Kairos Power, that’s a pulse.
The Department of Energy’s $2.7 billion push for domestic HALEU production in 2024? That’s a heartbeat.
Chris’s take: Follow the smart money, not the loud money.
The Supply Chain Trap
Here’s where the reactor core gets a little hot.
Nuclear’s big comeback hinges on enriched uranium…specifically HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium), with 5-20% U-235 content, versus the 3-5% in traditional fuel. It’s the high-octane stuff SMRs need.
Problem? Supply’s tight.
Russia’s Rosatom supplied 27% of U.S. enriched uranium in 2023 (EIA data), and it’s one of only two countries (with China) producing HALEU at scale today.
A 2024 U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports has lit a fire under domestic efforts, but it’s a slow burn.
Centrus Energy started HALEU production in Ohio in late 2023, targeting 900 kg annually by 2025…peanuts compared to the 100+ tons SMRs could demand by 2030.
The DOE’s throwing billions at the problem, but scaling takes years.
Chris’s warning: A geopolitical hiccup…sanctions, war, or a Kremlin shrug…could choke the fuel line overnight.
Global Positioning
The uranium game is global:
Mined: Kazakhstan (43% of world supply), Canada, Australia (World Nuclear Association, 2023).
Enriched: Russia, China, and a smattering from Urenco (UK-based, with U.S. ops).
Fabricated: A logistical jigsaw from the U.S. to South Korea.
Betting on nuclear isn’t picking a hot stock…it’s navigating a web of dirt, tech, and diplomacy.
Chris, isn’t fooled by flag-waving. “Geographical diversification matters,” he says, sounding like a guy who’s seen empires stumble over resource wars.
Cameco (Canadian mining giant), Urenco (enrichment leader), or even Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan’s uranium king) might outshine a U.S.-only SMR bet with no fuel in sight.
So What’s the Play?
Chris doesn’t sling stock picks. He builds frameworks.
His checklist:
Serious capital committed?
Actual hardware in the ground?
Supply chains locked in?
Engineers (not suits) buzzing?
Price still sane?
SMRs tick some boxes…Amazon’s X-energy stake, Oklo’s DOE site permit…but stumble on others. No commercial plants run yet. Fuel’s a question mark.
Valuations? Frothy.
Nuclear’s got legs…demand’s real, from Dow Chemical’s steam needs to AI’s power hunger. But SMRs? Still a maybe.
Fission Over Fantasy
Nuclear’s back!
Tailwinds are howling like it’s the 1950s again. But the data whispers caution…we’re early in this renaissance.
SMRs could be game-changers. Or they could be fusion…always 20 years away.
NuScale’s flop stings, but X-energy, Oklo, and Kairos have shots if they deliver.
For now, the old guard (Constellation, Duke Energy) and upstream titans (Cameco, Urenco) are the safer bets…running reactors, moving uranium, making money.
What will separate the winners from the vaporware in this nuclear revival? We’ll keep watching. Closely.